Iran gears up for its 2024 parliamentary elections on March 1st, amidst the ongoing Gaza conflict and with concerns about its potential impact on the polls. This hotly anticipated vote carries significant weight as it follows a period of social and political turmoil in the country, including widespread protests in 2022 sparked by the death of Mahsa Amini and the subsequent government crackdown.
The ongoing war in Gaza, which began in October 2023, has become a major point of focus for Iranian public opinion. Iran, a vocal supporter of the Palestinian cause, has condemned Israel's actions and expressed solidarity with the people of Gaza. This has intensified the already strained relations between Iran and Israel, further complicating the regional dynamics.
Against this backdrop, the upcoming elections hold the potential to shape Iran's domestic and foreign policy stances. While the full impact of the Gaza conflict on the polls remains to be seen, it is likely to influence voter sentiment and potentially mobilize certain segments of the population.
One crucial aspect to watch is the potential effect on voter turnout. The 2020 parliamentary elections witnessed a historic low of 42.57%, attributed to widespread disqualification of reformist and moderate candidates and public disillusionment with the political process.
The disqualification process this year has already removed around 28% of the initial applicants, raising concerns among some groups about a repeat of the 2020 scenario. This could further dampen voter participation, especially amongst those already feeling disenfranchised.
The ongoing economic crisis in Iran is another crucial factor influencing the elections. The combination of sanctions, high inflation, and unemployment continues to create significant hardship for many citizens. This economic discontent could translate into a vote against the current administration's handling of the situation.
The political landscape in Iran is divided between conservative and reformist factions, with the former currently holding a stronger position. The conservatives advocate for a more hardline approach towards foreign policy, including unwavering support for Palestinian groups like Hamas. They are also likely to prioritize issues like maintaining social and religious values within the country.
Reformists, on the other hand, generally advocate for greater political and social openness, and a more moderate approach on the international stage. However, their influence has been significantly weakened in recent years due to disqualification of candidates and crackdowns on dissent.
The outcome of the elections will have important implications for Iran's domestic and foreign policy trajectory. If the conservatives further consolidate their power, it could lead to a more rigid stance on various fronts, including the ongoing nuclear negotiations and relations with the West. On the other hand, a stronger reformist presence could signal a shift towards greater openness and engagement with the international community.
The upcoming elections in Iran are set to take place in a highly charged atmosphere, with the ongoing Gaza conflict and domestic challenges shaping the political landscape. As the country prepares to choose its new parliament, the world watches closely to see how these factors will influence the outcome and the direction Iran will take in the coming years.