Riyad Capital, a leading Saudi Arabian investment firm, has cast a cautious outlook on the country's petrochemical sector for the first half of 2024. Their Q1 2024 equity preview report predicts a challenging period for these companies, marked by sluggish demand and potential restructuring efforts.
The report highlights persistent weak demand as a primary concern. While hopes for a broader economic recovery exist, the immediate future appears less promising. This lackluster demand is compounded by rising feedstock prices, a crucial raw material for petrochemical production. Riyad Capital points to a specific instance - Saudi Aramco's recent methane and ethane price hikes - which are expected to hit companies hard in the first quarter.
The report also delves into the impact of geopolitical tensions in the Red Sea. These uncertainties have reportedly caused a surge in shipping rates during Q1 2024, adding another layer of pressure to the industry's profitability.
Further amplifying the difficulties, Riyad Capital notes a continued rise in the prices of key feedstocks like propane and butane during the same period. These cost increases are expected to squeeze profit margins for major petrochemical producers.
In light of these headwinds, Riyad Capital suggests that Saudi petrochemical companies may be forced to consider "right-sizing" measures. This term typically refers to cost-cutting strategies that might involve workforce reductions, streamlining operations, or asset sales. While the report doesn't explicitly state the extent of these potential measures, it suggests that companies will likely be exploring ways to optimize their operations and become more cost-effective in the face of these challenges.
The outlook for the latter half of 2024 remains uncertain. While a broader economic rebound could offer some relief, the report maintains a cautious stance, emphasizing the need for these companies to navigate a complex economic landscape in the near term.
This looming period of sluggish demand and rising costs presents a significant test for Saudi Arabia's petrochemical industry. The success of companies in adapting their strategies and potentially implementing right-sizing measures will likely determine their ability to weather these challenging conditions.