The announcement follows prolonged negotiations between the Iraqi government and the US, focused on the continued cooperation in combatting the remnants of ISIS while transitioning Iraq’s security responsibilities entirely to local forces. Iraq's Defence Minister stated on Sunday that the final details are being ironed out, with the official signing of the agreement expected in the coming months. This agreement represents a culmination of Iraq’s growing desire to take full control of its internal security operations, while still benefiting from US training and advisory roles.
The presence of US troops in Iraq has been a contentious issue for many years. Since the invasion of Iraq in 2003, American forces have played a pivotal role in shaping Iraq’s military capabilities. However, over the past decade, there has been mounting pressure from various political factions within Iraq for the complete withdrawal of foreign troops. The current two-year plan aims to address those concerns while ensuring that Iraq is adequately equipped to manage its security without external support.
The coalition forces, led by the United States, were initially deployed to Iraq to combat ISIS after the militant group seized large swathes of territory in 2014. At its peak, the US-led coalition included forces from multiple countries, contributing to air strikes, intelligence gathering, and the training of Iraqi forces. Their combined efforts significantly weakened ISIS and reclaimed much of the territory the group had controlled.
However, as ISIS has been largely reduced to small, fragmented cells operating in isolated regions, the strategic necessity of a large foreign troop presence in Iraq has diminished. This has paved the way for discussions on a troop withdrawal plan that acknowledges Iraq’s strengthened military and improved security situation.
The Iraqi government’s push for the withdrawal reflects a broader trend of asserting sovereignty over its national security policies. Prime Minister Mohammed Shia' Al Sudani has emphasized the need for Iraq to take ownership of its defense systems, while maintaining beneficial ties with international partners like the United States. The Iraqi armed forces have undergone significant improvements in recent years, largely due to training programs and equipment supplied by the US and other coalition members.
Despite these advancements, challenges remain. ISIS, though weakened, continues to pose a threat in the region, with sporadic attacks targeting military personnel and civilians. Iraq will likely rely on US intelligence and logistical support even after the troop withdrawal is complete. The Defence Minister underscored that the planned departure of US troops would be gradual, ensuring that Iraqi forces have sufficient time to fully assume control of security operations.
The US Department of Defense has also confirmed that discussions are ongoing to finalize the terms of the withdrawal. A spokesperson reiterated that the United States remains committed to the long-term security and stability of Iraq, even as the coalition's military presence is reduced. Future cooperation between the two nations is expected to shift toward advisory and diplomatic efforts, with a focus on intelligence sharing and counterterrorism strategies.
The timing of this announcement is also significant in light of regional dynamics. Iraq continues to navigate its position between Western powers and its neighbors, particularly Iran. The reduced US military presence in Iraq could have far-reaching implications for Iraq’s relationships with neighboring countries, as well as its internal political factions, some of which are aligned with Tehran.
Iranian-backed militias in Iraq, who have long demanded the expulsion of foreign troops, may see the upcoming withdrawal as a victory for their cause. These militias, some of which have been integrated into Iraq's formal security forces, have played an influential role in shaping Iraq's security policies. However, the Iraqi government’s emphasis on maintaining strategic partnerships with the US indicates a desire to balance these influences.
The US military, while scaling back its presence, has made it clear that it will continue to monitor the situation in Iraq and respond to any threats posed by extremist groups. Washington’s broader counterterrorism strategy in the region will likely adapt to focus on targeted operations and collaborations with Iraqi forces rather than maintaining a large, on-the-ground presence.
This planned withdrawal also aligns with the Biden administration’s broader foreign policy objectives, which include reducing military commitments in the Middle East and refocusing resources on other global challenges. However, the administration has stressed that it will not leave Iraq vulnerable to resurgent threats from groups like ISIS.