The Bank of England’s decision to cut the benchmark interest rate to 4.75% on Thursday is a welcome step, but businesses and consumers must adjust to a slower pace of easing than had previously been expected.
“With inflation having fallen to 1.7% and wage growth showing signs of slowing before the UK Budget, the expectation of a rapid reduction in borrowing costs has been tempered,” says Nigel Green, CEO of deVere Group, one of the world’s largest independent financial advisory and asset management organizations.
“The economic landscape has shifted, and businesses and consumers need to recalibrate expectations. With inflation lower and wage growth subdued, the Bank’s focus is on ensuring sustainable growth while avoiding overheating.”
The recent UK Budget has added another layer of complexity to the economic outlook. Chancellor Rachel Reeves’ Budget included £40 billion in new tax hikes and a change to the UK’s debt rules, which were met with caution by the Office for Budget Responsibility (OBR).
“These measures could drive near-term growth, but they also risk fuelling inflation in the short term.
“The government’s budget decisions are pushing a careful balance between short-term growth and long-term stability,” says Green.
“The £40 billion in tax hikes will have a direct impact on disposable incomes and business investments. While these measures could help curb the public debt, they will also weigh on the economic momentum businesses and consumers were hoping for in the short run.”
The changes to the UK’s debt rules outlined in the Budget will likely create additional economic volatility in the months ahead, as the OBR warned of potential near-term inflationary pressures as a result of the new fiscal framework. This warning underscores the challenge facing the Bank of England as it seeks to steer the economy through this period of transition.
For businesses, the new fiscal landscape means a re-evaluation of investment strategies and cost management.
The £40 billion in tax hikes could be especially impactful on margins and profitability, particularly for those in industries sensitive to fiscal tightening. In the same vein, consumer spending, which has already been under strain due to inflation, is expected to face further pressures as disposable income is squeezed by the tax increases.
“The hopes of a faster pace of easing from the Bank of England appear to have been dashed for now at least,” concludes the deVere Group CEO.
