The banking sector in the Gulf Cooperation Council has shown robust expansion, fueled by diversified economic activities in key nations like Saudi Arabia and the UAE. Lending in non-oil sectors experienced an annualized growth of over 10% during the first half of 2024, significantly outpacing the growth rate from the previous year. These gains have been complemented by steady margins, which hovered around 2.7%, even as deposit migration trends shifted toward remunerated instruments. Asset quality remained strong, with risk costs controlled within manageable limits, contributing to improved profitability metrics such as return on assets, which climbed to 1.74% mid-year.
Looking ahead, challenges loom with the U.S. Federal Reserve expected to reduce interest rates by up to 150 basis points by the end of 2025. This policy shift could compress net margins and profits across GCC banks, potentially reducing net income by 8% for every 100-basis-point cut. However, the easing of rates may offer relief to overleveraged sectors, particularly in real estate and retail, supporting asset quality and mitigating broader financial stress.
Cost controls have become a focal point for regional banks aiming to cushion the impact of narrowing margins. Conservative dividend policies and strong Tier 1 capital ratios—averaging over 17%—place these institutions in a solid position to manage emerging risks, including geopolitical uncertainties. While Qatar and Kuwait face localized pressures in their real estate markets, their respective banking sectors benefit from state support mechanisms and well-provisioned balance sheets.