During his first tenure, Trump championed policies that drastically reshaped the Middle East's geopolitical landscape. His administration brokered the Abraham Accords, normalizing relations between Israel and multiple Arab nations, while also unilaterally withdrawing from the Iran nuclear deal, heightening hostilities with Tehran. These decisions, alongside his staunch support for Israel and reluctance to engage militarily in Syria, signaled a pivot from traditional U.S. foreign policy. A second term could herald intensified unilateralism, coupled with efforts to bolster relationships with Gulf monarchies like Saudi Arabia and the UAE.
The ongoing war in Gaza and Israel's military operations have intensified calls for diplomatic intervention. Trump’s explicit support for Israel’s right to defend itself, while ignoring broader calls for a ceasefire, resonates with his base but risks alienating Arab partners. If reelected, Trump might amplify military and political support for Israel, potentially exacerbating regional unrest and prompting stronger opposition from Iran and its allied factions, such as Hezbollah.
The Middle East's volatile balance is further complicated by rising Russian and Chinese influence. Beijing has leveraged U.S. disengagement under the Biden administration to forge closer ties with Saudi Arabia and Iran, while Russia continues to play a central role in Syria and arms negotiations with Tehran. Trump’s disdain for NATO and ambiguous stance on U.S. commitments in the region could embolden adversaries while unsettling allies.
Critically, Trump’s hardline stance on Iran is expected to intensify. His administration previously pursued maximum pressure tactics, including economic sanctions and the targeted killing of Qassem Soleimani, a top Iranian general. Tehran may anticipate harsher measures if Trump returns, further complicating diplomatic avenues. Iran's nuclear ambitions, coupled with its support for proxy groups across the Middle East, remain contentious issues likely to define U.S.-Iran relations under Trump.
Trump’s rhetoric surrounding Ukraine and his criticism of NATO have raised questions about his commitment to U.S. allies globally, including those in the Middle East. European powers, already grappling with energy dependencies and security concerns, might view a Trump presidency as destabilizing. However, Gulf states such as Saudi Arabia, which seek to balance relations with both Washington and Beijing, could leverage Trump's transactional approach to secure favorable arms deals and economic agreements.
Observers also point to the potential impact on Palestinian statehood prospects. Trump's prior actions, including recognizing Jerusalem as Israel's capital and cutting aid to Palestinian refugees, drew widespread criticism. His unapologetic support for Israeli policies suggests a continuation of strategies that marginalize Palestinian aspirations for statehood, further polarizing the region.
While Trump’s promises of swift conflict resolution, including his assertion of ending the war in Ukraine "within days," appeal to his domestic audience, such statements often mask the complexities of geopolitical realities. Critics argue that his approach could erode trust among Middle Eastern allies, especially those wary of abrupt policy shifts.