This expiry encompasses over 139,000 Bitcoin option contracts, representing nearly 45% of the total active Bitcoin contracts. Historically, such significant expiries have had the potential to induce notable price fluctuations in the cryptocurrency market. However, current market indicators suggest a different scenario.
The Bitcoin 30-day implied volatility index, a measure of expected future price swings, remains relatively low. Additionally, funding rates for perpetual futures contracts are stable, indicating balanced demand between long and short positions. These factors collectively point towards tempered volatility expectations surrounding the upcoming options expiry.
Luuk Strijers, Chief Commercial Officer at Deribit, commented on the situation, stating that the current market data does not suggest significant volatility following the options settlement. He emphasized that the distribution of open interest between call and put options appears balanced, reducing the likelihood of abrupt price movements post-expiry.
In the broader context, Bitcoin has experienced a decline of over 20% from its record high in January, trading around $84,353. This downturn is partly attributed to concerns over global trade policies and macroeconomic conditions. Despite a brief rebound following the Federal Reserve's decision to slow quantitative tightening, analysts remain cautious about further downside risks due to ongoing uncertainties in global trade and inflation.
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Cryptocurrency