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Oman's Fiscal Fortitude Bolstered by Strategic Reforms

Oman's sovereign credit profile has markedly improved, with major rating agencies acknowledging the nation's fiscal consolidation and economic diversification efforts. Standard & Poor's upgraded Oman's long-term foreign and local currency ratings to 'BBB-' from 'BB+', reinstating its investment-grade status after nearly seven years. This upgrade reflects the government's commitment to enhancing public finances through reforms and restructuring.

The Oman Investment Authority has played a pivotal role in these advancements. By streamlining state-owned enterprises, improving governance, and reducing debt levels, the OIA has contributed to a more efficient and transparent financial environment. The establishment of entities like the Oman Energy Development Company and the Integrated Gas Company has further refined the government's financial accounts, ensuring a clearer depiction of net revenues after sector-specific expenses.

Fitch Ratings has also revised Oman's outlook to positive, affirming its 'BB+' rating. The agency highlighted the nation's declining public debt, projected to decrease from 37.5% of GDP in 2023 to 34% in 2024, and further to 33.3% by 2026. This trajectory is supported by anticipated fiscal surpluses and a commitment to repaying external debt, which is expected to reduce by approximately $2.8 billion in 2024.

Moody's has echoed this sentiment, upgrading Oman's outlook to positive while maintaining its 'Ba1' rating. The agency cited the government's effective debt management strategies, which have reduced public debt to about 36.5% of GDP by the end of 2023. Moody's also acknowledged the nation's bolstered foreign-currency reserves, enhancing its capacity to navigate external economic shocks.

Capital Intelligence Ratings has further endorsed Oman's fiscal progress by upgrading its long-term foreign and local currency ratings to 'BBB-', with a positive outlook. This reflects the nation's improved fiscal metrics and the effectiveness of its economic reforms.

The non-oil sector has been a significant contributor to Oman's economic resilience. Growth in domestic consumption, increased foreign investment, and a revitalized tourism industry have collectively driven non-oil sector growth, projected to exceed 3% in the coming years. This diversification reduces the economy's reliance on oil revenues and enhances its stability.
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